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Forecasting Accuracy

Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:10 am
by Mct
Gday,

Ive been using the melb pollen app for a little while now and it is great! While the historical data is quite useful, Im finding the forecasting to be highly variable. I have noticed (for Melb city) that bad grass pollen days (at least in Nov) seem to be fairly well related to the temperature / wind direction i.e. if you have a 30 degree day and a big northerly it is highly likely that it will be a High/Extreme day as all the grass pollen is blown from inland Vic. Similarly those days where we can expect a southerly seem to be correlated with lower pollen counts.

My question is - is there any intent on linking the forecasting with meteorological data from BOM? I think this would provide valuable foresight for people (and accurate forecasting is really what people want so they can mitigate symptoms as required).

Would be interested in your thoughts. Cheers!

Re: Forecasting Accuracy

Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:38 am
by Ed@MelbournePollen
Thanks for the message and interesting question Mct.

One of my colleagues developed a statistical model for grass pollen in Melbourne's air that uses daily weather forecast information from BoM plus a few other factors such as landscape greeness as measured by satellites. So this year we are using that model to do our forecasting (although all forecasts are checked first and adjusted if needed) and use the same forecasting model, combined with severe weather forecasts produced by the BoM plus some other factors, to predict likely thunderstorm asthma outbreaks across Victoria.

As you'd expect, we work closely with BoM and together we will be bringing in further improvements to the way we do our forecasting next season.

Best Christmas Wishes from the Melbourne POllen Count.

Re: Forecasting Accuracy

Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:57 pm
by ByronSab
That's awesome, Ed. God knows we could always use better forecasting. How accurate do you find it to be at this stage?

Re: Forecasting Accuracy

Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:48 pm
by Sam
Can you tell me, is there anywhere I can go to get a forecast on the allergy season forecasts for 2018? Most websites will give information on the week instead of more longer term forecasts.